Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 16/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 669 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 075
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  010/010-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10