Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/0510Z from Region 2087 (S19W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (18 Jun, 19 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (20 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 17/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1958Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0511Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (18 Jun, 19
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 50/50/40
Class X 15/10/05
Proton 15/10/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 114
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/05