Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0812Z from Region 1772 (S20E15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun,
19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
17/0427Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 124
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/15