Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 17/1815Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 17/0339Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 071
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/40