Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0803Z from Region 2567 (N05E02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 17/0155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5512 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 105
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/20/30