Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2015

IIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 542 km/s at 17/0254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7462 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 097
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 015/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/008-008/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/35/35
Major-severe storm 20/35/30