Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0916Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 419 km/s at
17/0100Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1835Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4333 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 111
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 011/015-013/020-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/45/45
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/65/65