Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1408Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 070
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  006/006-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10