Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 17/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 071
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/005-007/008-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/45