Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 16/2222Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2711 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 079
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 079/078/078
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  017/025-015/020-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/60/40