Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (20 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at 17/0554Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2706 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 101
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 007/008-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/45/35