Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0602Z from Region 2941 (N25W97). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 17/1359Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1783 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (20 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 05/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 097
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 095/095/098
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-011/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/65