Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 17/2004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 071
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 008/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25