Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 17/1451Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0032Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 069
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  011/012-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/30