Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 17/1716Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 17/0136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/0736Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 075
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 075/077/079
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  012/012-009/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20