Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 17, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Feb 119

Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115

90 Day Mean        17 Feb 150

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  009/010-006/005-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/05/05

Minor Storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/15/15

Major-severe storm    40/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.