Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 119
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
