Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 17/0118Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Dec, 19 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (20 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 071
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 008/010-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/25