Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1670 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 068
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/15