Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 17/1933Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 067
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  007/008-006/005-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/50