Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 17, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 17/1309Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 617 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 083
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-009/010-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/40/20


SpaceRef staff editor.