Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 16/0123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1745 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 069
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  007/008-009/010-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/25/10