Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 16/0222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31051 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (19 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 069
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 014/016-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20