Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 821 km/s at 16/1435Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 16/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22886 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 072
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 072/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  030/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  024/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  016/020-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/40