Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 16/0330Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1815Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (19 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 084
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 085/080/080
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 005/008-006/005-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/20