Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/1927Z from Region 2158 (N16W81). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(19 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at
16/0144Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0242Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1829Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 30/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 133
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 130/130/120
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 008/012-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/25
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/30