Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at
16/0549Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 095
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 009/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/10