Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 16/1628Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 066
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10