Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 15/2354Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36944 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 071
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/072
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/010-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/45/45