Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 775 km/s at 16/1514Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4699 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 081
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 080/080/075
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 018/026-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/15/10
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/10