Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 16, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 109
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.