Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to

16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at

16/1303Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct,

19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at

16/1500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0313Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2013Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct)

and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Oct 139

Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 150/160/170

90 Day Mean        16 Oct 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/30/30