Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 635 km/s at 16/1704Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 15/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 182 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 080
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/10/10