Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 16/0330Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 482 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 077
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10