Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and expected to be very low on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1315 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 071
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  006/005-008/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/30