Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16/1440Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/2343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 886 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Nov, 19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 073
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  013/014-007/010-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/25
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/20