Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 16, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 424 km/s at 15/2105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0447Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 106
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 104/104/102
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/010-019/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40

SpaceRef staff editor.