Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 16/1748Z from Region 2209 (S15E31). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 706 km/s at 16/0556Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 172
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 014/018-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
