Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 16/1327Z from Region 3017 (N14E66). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic IMF reached 9 nT at 16/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May) and quiet levels on day two (18 May).

III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 162
Predicted 17 May-19 May 162/160/160
90 Day Mean 16 May 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/30