Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 16/1024Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May).

III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 069
Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/25