Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/0704Z from Region 2056 (N06W63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
16/2023Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0756Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19
May).

III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 139
Predicted 17 May-19 May 135/130/135
90 Day Mean 16 May 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05