Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/2246Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 16/0342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 107
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 108/108/106
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 006/008-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/40/20