Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 16/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3681 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 079
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 006/005-008/008-016/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/40
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/55