Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 15/2208Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13732 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 069
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  013/015-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/20