Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/0646Z from Region 2522 (N14W85). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 16/1354Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/2017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3690 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 091
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/014-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/20