Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 16/0755Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 60/60/60
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 117
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
