Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
16/0645Z from Region 2003 (N05W91). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
15/2354Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 136
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 026/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05