Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0353Z from Region 3031 (S25W30). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/2058Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 147
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 146/146/144
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 008/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20