Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 16/1200Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Jun 066

Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 067/067/067

90 Day Mean        16 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  010/012-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    25/25/25