Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
June 16, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 820 km/s at 16/2202Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 816 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Jun, 19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 071
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 072/074/074
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  008/008-008/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.