Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1020Z from Region 1769 (S23E24). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Jun) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (18
Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
16/1908Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1954Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 15/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 116
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 006/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15